It is still early in the 2012 Major League Baseball season. A little more than a quarter of the games have been played and the standings on June 1 will not mirror those come October.
But you cannot disqualify what has transpired so far this baseball season, and if teams continue what they're doing, you will see some perennial contenders sitting at home come October while young, upstart teams come out on top of their division.
It is fair to say that five of the six current division leaders were not expected to be there this far along: Baltimore, Chicago, Washington, Cincinnati and Los Angeles.
Baltimore plays in the loaded AL East, where four teams were expected to vie for playoff spots. The Orioles were not one of them. They were supposed to finish dead last, like they have so many times before. But with a young core of players centered around All-Star centerfielder Adam Jones, and a pitching staff that sports a 3.58, the Orioles sit atop the division with a 29-20 record.
In the AL Central, no team was supposed to catch the Detroit Tigers. Adding Prince Fielder to a lineup that already Miguel Cabrera was supposed to produce too many runs for teams to beat. But the White Sox have actually scored more runs than the Tigers per game.
Over in the NL, the Washington Nationals have arrived earlier than expected. The young guns, including pitcher Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper, are 10 games over .500 and poised to make a run at a division title, which has been owned by the Phillies for the last five years.
The Reds' lead over the World Series champion Cardinals is not substantial (just a half game) but their pitching may allow them to stay in contention all year. Their pitching staff sports a 3.47 ERA, seventh best in the majors, and allow just 3.8 runs per game, fourth best in baseball.
Out West most people thought the Dodgers would struggle after a disappointing third-place finish last year and total mess of an offseason thanks to ownership problems. But new owners came in, highlighted by NBA great Magic Johnson, and apparently bought some good fortune with them. Of all the surprise division leaders, the Dodgers look the most like real threats. They sit 6.5 games ahead of second place San Francisco with the game's best record of 32-16. Supported by the outstanding play of outfielder Matt Kemp, an early season MVP contender, the Dodgers could not only win the NL West, but could go all the way to the World Series.
There's a reason you play all the games and another why they say baseball is a marathon not a sprint. The hot summer days test a team's endurance and eventually the real contenders will rise to the top. But just because it's early does not mean we should take surprise teams lightly. They may very well have a bigger surprise in store for us come October.