The erroneous announcement of Demetrious Johnson as the winner in his UFC Flyweight Tournament bout against Ian McCall back in March was a bad mistake no matter how you slice it. The fact of the matter is that "Mighty Mouse" and "Uncle Creepy" should have gone to an immediate sudden-death round, as opposed to the rematch that they'll have on Friday at the Bank Atlantic Center in Sunrise, Fla.
Making it even worse, though, was the fact that if any fighter should have been announced as the winner on that night in Sydney, Australia, it should have been McCall. "Uncle Creepy" seemed to get stronger throughout the fight, and he had Johnson in deep, deep trouble in the third round. Had the fight gone to a fourth round - as it would have had the scorecards been tabulated properly - it's much easier to see McCall winning the fight than it is to see Johnson moving on to face Joseph Benavidez for the inaugural UFC Flyweight Championship.
And yet, as the fighters head into their rematch on Friday night live on FX, it's Johnson, not McCall, who is the betting favorite.
It's a dangerous thing, of course, to read too much into posted fight odds. The betting sites are in business to make money, after all, and the science of enticing fight fans into parting with their hard-earned money isn't for amateurs. However, it is still worth wondering what the oddsmakers see in "Mighty Mouse" that could make him the favorite in a rematch from a bout where he previously looked overmatched.
Johnson, of course, is the bigger name. He's a former No. 1 contender for the UFC Bantamweight Championship, and he gave champion Dominick Cruz all he could handle when the two fought in October. With a card that, in all honesty, isn't setting the world on fire in terms of starpower, it is relatively easily to look quickly and anoint the bigger name as the favorite.
On the other hand, there is also the fact that Johnson was making his flyweight debut in March, whereas McCall had three previous fights at 125 pounds. Johnson has mentioned on several occasions that he had cut carbohydrates out of his diet due to concerns about the weight cut, resulting in a lack of energy as the fight progressed. Johnson has promised no such issues this time around, and we've certainly seen enough fighters struggle with their weight cuts - think Jose Aldo in the later rounds at UFC 129 last year - to give him the benefit of the doubt.
The reality is that anything can happen on Friday night. It may well be that a properly nourished Johnson will have the gas tank to carry him through a full fight against McCall without issue, and that he'll be able to get the win he thought he had back in March. It's also possible, however, that McCall will be able to dominate as the fight goes on, just as he did three months ago.
We won't really know until the fighters step into the Octagon.