Tottenham Hotspur's decision to part ways with manager Harry Redknapp following a fourth place finish in the English Premier League comes with a certain level of risk.
At a certain level of success in sports - all sports - it's hardly a certainty that a change at the top will result in improved performance. If Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy is not acting with a clear plan as to who the next manager will be and why he's a better fit for the club than Redknapp, the decision to let him go could easily be looked back upon as a mistake in two or three years' time.
Of course, there are certain extenuating circumstances with the Redknapp situation that could be cause for an optimistic take on the move. For one, Spurs spent much of the 2011-12 campaign grappling with the possibility of losing Redknapp, either to prison in the event of his conviction on tax evasion charges, or to the England national team when he was considered to be a prime candidate for the job following the resignation of Fabio Capello. Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding Redknapp's future with the club, Levy and the rest of Tottenham's board had to be evaluating plans going forward in the event that Redknapp became unavailable. One of those plans may or may not have involved Everton manager David Moyes, whose name has already emerged as a front-runner for the Spurs job, and if that plan comes to fruition, Moyes' history of strong performances while working with a tight budget at Everton should make him a good fit with Spurs, a club that is run with an eye toward the bottom line.
The other factor is the fact that Redknapp was seeking a long-term deal as he entered the last year of his contract with Spurs. While Redknapp's finishes at Tottenham did not necessarily merit a sacking - Spurs finished eighth, fourth, fifth and fourth under his leadership - Tottenham's second-half swoon was cause for concern, and committing to Redknapp for additional years could hardly have been considered advisable at this point. If the options were between losing Redknapp now and committing long-term to a coach whose time may be up, it's not too hard to fault Levy and company for making the decision they did.
Until Tottenham takes the pitch for the 2012-13 campaign, however, the jury will be out.