As much as I would like to say the New York Yankees are the favorite in this match, the statistics are hard to ignore. My prediction is that after Game 1 is over, the Baltimore Orioles will have a 1-0 lead in the series, taking home field advantage away from the Yankees.

The Yankees' pitching is their weakest link in this matchup. Here's are the facts:

C.C. Sabathia has been reduced to a mediocre pitcher when facing the Orioles in 2012. In three starts against the O's this season, Sabathia went 18.1 innings and gave up 13 earned runs, losing two of three games against the Orioles. 

Making matters worse, aside from his 2009 pitching performance that saw the Yankees get crowned World Champions, Sabathia has not been a great postseason pitcher. 

Last season, Sabathia had a 6.23 ERA in three games and two starts in the division series. The year before, in 2010, he started three games with an ERA of 5.63 giving up 10 runs in 16 innings pitched. 

Clearly, Sabathia is not the ace the Yankees have wanted, especially because he cannot perform adequately in the postseason. He has his wins, but of course, the Yankees offense has had to save him.

Down the stretch, the Yankees faced weaker opponents. Though they always rise to the occasion, I believe the Orioles' intensity will catch them off guard and do enough defeat the Yankees in Game 1. They are still hot off their victory over the Texas Rangers.

The Orioles will have Jason Hammel on the mound against the Yankees. He went 8-6 in the season with a 3.43 ERA. He faced the Yankees three times in 2012 and gave up seven runs in 16 innings pitched.