AFC Wild Card, Sunday 1 p.m.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Baltimore (10-6)
Without looking too deep at the game, it's natural to say that the Indianapolis Colts are the underdog to the Baltimore Ravens.
The Colts are coming off of a 2-14 season, while the Ravens made it to the AFC championship game last year. The Colts have a rookie quarterback, while the Ravens are led by Joe Flacco, the only player in NFL history to start and win a playoff game in each of his first four seasons. The Colts are one of the AFC Wild Card teams, while the Ravens are hosting a home playoff game as a division winner.
Based on all that, it's easy to say that the Colts are underdogs, but look a bit deeper, and that picture starts to change.
The Colts are traveling to enemy territory (even more so because it's Baltimore and there was that whole moving away thing all those years ago), but the Ravens are the team with all the pressure after struggling at the end of the year, losing three of their final four games.
The Ravens will have some extra motivation, as linebacker Ray Lewis announced on Wednesday that this would be his last playoff run with the team and he will retire once it is over. Baltimore rested players in Week 17 against the Bengals, so that loss doesn't count too hard on the Ravens, but the team did not play well down the stretch.
Joe Flacco will be the key for the Ravens. The Colts defense is ranked 21st in the league in passing yards, giving up 236 yards per game and has been vulnerable to big plays throughout the year. Flacco hasn't been the most accurate quarterback throughout his career --he has never completed more than 63 percent of his passes as a pro-- but he will have a solid matchup against a young Indianapolis secondary.
This season Flacco has thrown for 3,817 yards and 22 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, but is completing less than 60 percent of his passes. Over the final five games of the season, Flacco threw for seven touchdowns and three interceptions and completed over 60 percent of his passes twice.
The Ravens will have an advantage with running back Ray Rice, as the Colts rank 29th in the league in rushing, giving up nearly 140 yards per game. Baltimore will try to get Rice into open space, as the Colts give up a league-high 5.1 yards per rushing attempt.
Rice has rushed for 1,143 yards and nine touchdowns this season, but he has been kept out of the end zone for three straight games. Baltimore will try to give Rice a lot of touches to help open up the passing game and to keep the Colts' front seven honest. Rice has rushed for 100-plus yards four times this season, with the Ravens winning three of those games.
Baltimore opened the season 9-2, but dropped three straight to Pittsburgh, Washington and Denver before defeating the New York Giants 33-14 on Dec. 23. The Ravens have been inconsistent on offense this season and changed offensive coordinators in the middle of the year, promoting Jim Caldwell into Cam Cameron's position.
The team looked great in a 55-20 win against Oakland, but struggled to score in a 9-6 win over Kansas City, one of the worst teams in the league.
The Ravens defense has been weaker than in recent years and will have to face a young, exciting team in the Indianapolis Colts. Quarterback Andrew Luck has been excellent as a rookie and he will have a slew of receivers to throw to, including Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and Donnie Avery.
The Colts have won numerous close games this season and made the playoffs with a point differential of minus-30, the sixth-lowest figure for a playoff team since 1990, according to Grantland.com. The site also notes that those other five teams all won their first playoff game before losing in the next round.
Luck has proven to be a capable leader for the Colts and has thrown for a rookie-record 4,374 yards and 23 touchdowns. He has thrown for 18 interceptions and was ranked 31st in the league in completion percentage, but will be facing a vulnerable Ravens defense that is allowing over 350 total yards per game.
Over the final stretch of the season, Luck threw for five touchdowns and zero interceptions as the Colts won two of three games, including a 28-16 victory over the Texans to finish the year. Luck has formed a comfortable relationship with wideout Reggie Wayne, who had 106 receptions for 1,355 yards and five touchdowns, the most he has had since 2010.
The Colts will be emotional with the return of head coach Chuck Pagano from his treatments for cancer, but the Ravens will also be emotional since he was once a coach there and because of Lewis's pending retirement. The Ravens have been cold for a few weeks, while the Colts finished hot, giving them a chance to ride a wave of momentum into a road playoff victory.
Prediction: Colts 21, Ravens 17. This score could go either way, but there is just something about this Colts team. No matter the situation, they seem to find a way to win. The team is young and inexperienced, but has played like veterans all year. The Ravens were a great team early in the season, but have looked awful over the final stretch apart from the win against the Giants. Flacco will be extra motivated for this game after receiving a lot of criticism for his play this year, but it won't be enough for the Ravens to win. The defense hasn't been as good as it was in recent years and that will be the tipping point for the Colts.