Only one team could survive and though the home crowd will be roaring, I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Cincinnati Reds have an edge in this game as they head to PNC Park to play the playoff hungry Pittsburgh Pirates. Why will they win? The answer lies on the battles that will take place on the mound as the Reds and Pirates play the 2013 N.L. Wild Card Game at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday night.
Cueto Counts
The difference will be Cueto in this matchup. He has shut down the Pirates throughout the 2013 season, facing them twice. He barely pitched games, but when Cueto was no the mound, he was pretty effective for the Reds. In just 11 starts this season, Cueto went 5-2 with a 2.82 ERA, holding opponents to a .209 batting average.
How could you pick Cueto on the road at PNC Park with the Pirates winning three straight against the Reds just a couple of days ago?
That's precisely what makes the difference. Cueto did not face the Pirates in the previous series in which the Reds were swept. He's gone 1-0 in two starts, pitching 12.1 innings, allowing one run on three hits and two walks, while striking out nine Pirates on the way. Oh yeah, and both of these starts have been at PNC Park.
Loriano's Losses
On the other side of the equation and playing a huge factor in my prediction, Liriano's struggles in 2013 against the Reds. Out of all the rivals in the N.L. Central, the Reds are the only team Liriano could not beat. He went 0-3 in four starts against them, though not pitching terribly. He posted a 3.70 ERA after allowing 10 earned runs in 24.1 innings. His command disappears when he's on the mound against the Reds, walking 10 battlers, though striking out 28.
Liriano was roughed up badly only once against the Reds back in July. In every other start, Liriano has not allowed more than two earned runs. However, in that one game back on July 19, Liriano surrendered five earned runs in 4.1 innings. The Pirates were 2-3 in the month of September with their big ace on the mound.
The Reds will come out confident, though the crowd will be heavily against their favor. However, Cincinnati is not too far from Pittsburgh, so expect a couple of red shirts or towels in the stands tonight. The crowd factor might work against the Pirates, as TBS analysts and former MLB Cy Young Award winner said in yesterday's broadcast, PNC Park will be the loudest it's been in years. That noise could startle the Pirates as they make their first playoff appearance in 21 years.
Final Score Predictions: Reds win 6-3.
