Training camps will be starting up next month, which means it's time to start compiling your fantasy draft boards.
Regardless of the ironclad strategy you develop, you're going to need backup plans prepared in advance. Here's a look at some offensive players to consider when the clock's ticking and some others to ignore.
QB:
Sleeper: Andy Dalton
In today's pass-happy NFL, it can be tough to call any QB worth having a "sleeper." But if you aren't one to draft a QB early, Dalton should be high on your watch list.
As a rookie, Dalton threw for 3,398 yards and 20 TDs. He also notched 10 pass plays netting at least 40 yards. This year Dalton will likely allow A.J. Green to build upon his 65 reception, 1,057 yard rookie campaign. He'll also have a new toy in Rutgers alum Mohamed Sanu and some fresh feet for ground support with BenJarvus Green-Ellis joining the offense.
Despite a ton of potential, a decent supporting cast, and a convincing rookie year, Dalton will likely still be around when you're ready to select a signal caller towards the middle of your draft. In SWR's current mock, he is the 10th QB on the board.
He wouldn't be the first QB to jump out to a fast start and then hit a learning curve in year 2, but I see Dalton being a steady anchor for any fantasy offense.
Waiver Wire: Matt Flynn
This was admittedly a tough call given the nature of the position. I considered going with Joe Flacco here on the basis that observant drafters would be scared off by his powerhouse running back and lack of a superstar WR (I'm not doubting Boldin but his numbers didn't break the bank last year). But I can't put the man that should have thrown the AFC clinching TD pass on a list of undrafted players, especially since he did rack up 3,610 yards passing last season.
I'm going to go with Flynn here because I think he has the most potential out of the least likely guys to be drafted. Don't be that guy who thinks they pulled off a genius maneuver by selecting him in the 4th round because of one ridiculous 480 yard, six TD performance against Detroit. But definitely have your eye out for him after the rest of your team is set.
Stay away: Mark Sanchez
A quick glance at the stat sheet may cause you to question the doubt and rumors of QB controversy brewing in Florham Park, NJ. Sanchez wasn't stellar in 2011 but he did toss for 3,474 yards and 26 TDs. He's durable too and has only missed one game in his three year career.
The main knock on Mark is the apparent lack of instincts. His inability to finish drives frustrated many a Jet fan last season after they had seen the USC product reach the AFC Championship game during both of his first two campaigns.
Truth be told, Mark deserves at least another year to prove himself. It was not long ago that another New York QB was being booed out of town because of late season disappointments. You know him as Eli Manning.
Still, if you're tempted to add Sanchez to your roster, do not do it during your draft. If he should fall to the waiver wire, still be cautious. I do believe that Sanchez has potential to be better than he's shown, but frankly, his arsenal of weapons leaves much to be desired.
Plaxico Burress is no longer with the team. He'll take with him the respectable 45 reception, 8 TD season he contributed in '11. Santonio Holmes will be back, but he's averaged just over 50 catches over the past two years and might not be enough firepower to carry the unproven corps of WRs.
Sanchez may improve and may be a great emergency/bye week QB but I'd be wary until we see what he has to work with.
P.S. I do not think Tim Tebow poses a legitimate threat to Sanchez's job. Add one more established WR to the Jets roster and I consider taking Mark in the final two rounds.
RB:
Sleeper: Tim Hightower
Before succumbing to injury in October, Hightower was on pace to capture his first 1,000 yard season. Heading into his 5th NFL season, Hightower will be playing behind what most assume will be an immediate upgrade at QB. Robert Griffin the III will spread out defenders but (in his first year especially) a healthy dose of rushing attack will be needed.
Hightower isn't likely on top of your friends' lists so if elaborate plans to snag Ray Rice blow up in your face, stay calm and casually snatch Hightower in the 5th round.
Waiver Wire: Donald Brown
This guy has yet to accomplish a 700 yard season and he hasn't scored more than five times in a single year. If he's drafted at all, your league-mates are either very perceptive or Colts fans. His past numbers should spell fantasy disaster but if you read between the lines, there is hope for the NJ native.
His best season was 2011 when the Manningless Colts were forced to lean on the ground game for the first time since...well Fresh Prince was prime time TV. With a predictable and struggling offense around him, Brown elevated his game and would likely pass for a quality number 2 guy on a deeper team.
But the Colts are going to have to work with him as their main RB. Which means when Andrew Luck needs help, Indy will continue to turn to Brown for assistance. Defenses will respect Luck to an extent despite the fact that he is a rookie and Brown might see himself with larger openings to make moves in. If you need a bench RB, swipe this kid up off waivers.
Stay Away: Ahmad Bradshaw
Bradshaw can be a true force for the defending champs. The entire offense exhibits a marked improvement with the former 7th round pick in the game. There's the key, "in the game."
Bradshaw's durability will forever be a question. He has surgically implanted screws permanently lodged in both feet, which accounts for his sometimes awkward running style. He only missed six games due to injury since first being featured in the Giants offense in mid-2007. Four of those games, however, came last season.
While explosive, he has only eclipsed 1,000 yards once (2010) and was one half of the league's worst rushing attack last year. With Brandon Jacobs gone, he will enter 2012 as the starter on this now pass-happy offense but he will receive a decent push from rookie David Wilson.
Bradshaw may very well be a great addition mid-season after the injury bug shakes up the landscape (which is when he gets hot anyway) or he could be a great bench player in a three RB league, but I would not make him a waiver wire priority.
TE:
Sleeper: Jermichael Finley
So you're sitting at your laptop, finishing off some nachos, with a perfect plan of attack for the top of round 4. It's been a good night thus far; you nabbed Calvin Johnson with the 2nd overall selection and grabbed Aaron Rodgers in round 3.
Now it might be smart to focus on a TE. Rob Gronkowski didn't escape round 2 but his teammate Aaron Hernandez might not be a bad call. At least he would have been until the guy from Brookline Mass. selected him to compliment his 3rd round Tom Brady pick.
Witten's gone so you opt to take a solid RB in round 4 like Hightower and hold off. Twenty minutes later you're up again. Who do you take?
Go ahead and grab Jermichael Finley and his 55 receptions for 767 yards and eight TDs. He'll be playing catch with arguably the league's top slinger and he may just be a safer bet than Jimmy Graham who could potentially still be without both his head coach AND Drew Brees come Week 1.
Waiver Wire: Martellus Bennett/ Tony Gonzalez
Bennett will be a smart pickup if you have room on your bench.
He isn't likely to get drafted as he has spent his entire career as a backup to Jason Witten (who could have been yours if you wanted to reach an hour ago). He has never surpassed 33 receptions in a single season and he only notched 17 last year despite missing just two games.
So why take him? He's joining a Giants aerial attack that is led by Super Bowl MVP, Eli Manning. Originally, TE was not a concern for New York. But after losing both Jake Ballard and Travis Beckum to town ACL's in the Super Bowl, the Giants found themselves heading into 2012 with only one returning veteran (Bear Pascoe) at the position.
Bennett will enter the season as the starter and Manning likes to get the ball to his TE when possible. You'll see a sharp rise in the former Cowboy's career numbers.
Gonzalez is the definition of durability. He has missed one....yes one game over the course of his 15 year career. His numbers? Staggering. Last season he hauled in 80 receptions on an offense that also featured Julio Jones and Roddy White.
Your opponents may doubt that this ageless wonder has a 16th year of dominance in him. They could be right, but they could be wrong. If he falls to the final round or if he is staring you in the face as a FA on Monday morning, make room on your bench for Tony. He may very well be your MVP.
Stay Away: Kevin Boss
Boss was part of the inaugural Jerry Reese draft class in 2007. The class garnered a crop of rookie talent that was integral in propelling the Giants to a Super Bowl victory. Boss was no exception and when Jeremy Shockey broke his leg in Week 15, Boss stepped in as the starter and didn't relinquish the position until leaving the team in 2011.
But fantasy owners in years past have suffered the consequences of thinking they had found a steal in Boss. His best season as a professional amounted to 42 receptions for 567 yards and five TDs. His durability is also an issue. This year he will be saddled with Matt Cassel in Kansas City. I'd leave him on the wire.
WR:
Sleeper: A.J. Green
You're stuck picking 10th overall and several of your coveted receivers are already gone. Remember a day when Randy Moss still being available after nine picks would have been surprising? But this isn't 1998 so you'll pass on him.
Larry Fitzgerald is still on the board but somehow, so is Ray Rice. You can't resist and you take the rusher.
Now you're deep in round 2 and the top five options on your WR wish list are unavailable. Can you rely on Miles Austin to be your main anchor at WR? Truth be told, he hasn't come near his 2009 fantasy explosion, which saw him rack up 81 catches for over 13,000 yards and 11 TDs. Last year he totaled about half that.
For that reason I'm also about Victor Cruz. He may be one of the first five to go because of his incredible 82 reception season that saw 1,536 yards accumulated and nine TDs. Let's not forget the 99 -yard catch and run or the fact that 25 of his catches went for over 20 yards.
But I would not be surprised to see a sophomore slump for Cruz, especially if Nicks gets off to a slow start. He would definitely be a great addition to your team, but maybe wait a couple of rounds if possible.
So who do you take first? In this situation there are multiple options. A.J. Green is likely to still be available in the second round and since I've already given you my confidence in Andy Dalton, if he's there jump on him. Others that could fall to round 2 are Dez Bryant and Julio Jones.
Waiver Wire: Michael Crabtree
In some drafts, Crabtree might fall to the later rounds or even to waivers because of his surroundings. Fresh In many fans' minds is his one reception for three yards in the NFC Championship game.
He surpassed 70 receptions last season, nearly totaled 900 yards, and saw the end zone four times. We don't know which Alex Smith we are getting and it is yet to be seen if Mannigham and Moss will take away a substantial amount of passes Crabtree's way. Still, the top job is Crabtree's to lose. He'd likely make a great secondary WR on your roster.
Stay Away: Rueben Randle
The Giants selected Randle at the end of the 2nd round this year during the NFL Draft. He is intended to be an immediate replacement for a departing Manningham.
Randle will be the third option in the Giants passing attack but should see a decent amount of playing time this season as New York utilizes a multitude of three-wide sets. Manningham's numbers from the same position were not jaw dropping on paper (39 receptions for 523 yards) and he had experience under his belt.
Only take a chance on Randle if there is already a void needing to be filled. Don't second guess a player you felt comfortable with in order to make room for the rookie.
All advice given is based on projections and is for social Fantasy purposes only.
