The UFC on FX 4 fight card takes place Friday night at the Revel Casino in Atlantic City. Here's what you can expect to see on the action-packed main card.
Gray Maynard vs. Clay Guida: This fight is all about the difference between perception and reality. Guida is perceived as a top star in the lightweight division, but he still has yet to prove that he really is one. Maynard, on the other hand, is the real deal, largely thanks to his ability to change perceptions throughout his career.
While the foundation of Maynard's success is his NCAA Division I wrestling experience at Michigan State University, his powerful striking is what nearly gave him the UFC Lightweight Championship in his UFC 125 bout with Frankie Edgar. Even in the rematch at UFC 136, Maynard's deadly onslaught in the first round nearly dethroned Edgar.
Meanwhile, the enduring image of Guida is his nearly perpetual movement on the feet, his wild hair constantly bouncing, painting the image of "The Carpenter" as an exciting stand-up fighter. The reality is that Guida wins his fights on the ground, either through skillfully applied submissions against the likes of Takanori Gomi and Shannon Gugerty, or the suffocating top control he used to dispatch Anthony Pettis last June.
That's going to be a problem against Maynard, who has successfully defended 85 percent of the takedowns attempted against him in the UFC, with Edgar (a former Division I wrestler himself at Clarion University) the only fighter to accomplish the feat more than once. If anyone gets taken down in this fight, it will be Guida (although he boasts 75 percent takedown defense in his own right). The more likely outcome is that the fighters contest much of the bout on their feet, with Maynard using his superior striking to achieve the victory, most likely with a third-round knockout.
Spencer Fisher vs. Sam Stout: These two have matched up twice before, with both fights going to the judges' scorecards. The rubber match won't determine much in the lightweight division other than the winner of the trilogy, but it should prove an entertaining scrap nonetheless between two tough, talented lightweights. Stout has been more successful of late, although Fisher has faced slightly tougher opposition in fighters like Joe Stevenson, Denis Siver, and Ross Pearson (although Stout's wins over Matt Wiman and Joe Lauzon are quite respectable). Fisher claims that this will probably be his last fight, so look for him to do everything in his power to go out on top. It may not be enough, though, against the younger Stout, who has won four of his last six fights.
Look for an entertaining stand-up fight here, with the judges settling it one more time. It'd be nice for Fisher to ride off into the sunset victorious, but Stout is the more likely winner here.
Brian Ebersole vs. TJ Waldburger: The journeyman Ebersole has been on a roll since finally making his UFC debut at UFC 127, and now he's the de facto gatekeeper against Waldburger, a 24-year-old Texan whose lone UFC loss came against top welterweight contender Johny Hendricks. In "Twas," Waldburger faces a well-traveled veteran with an insane amount of experience - Friday marks Ebersole's 66th fight in 12 years) - a Division I wrestling background, and an unorthodox streak a mile wide. This is the fight that determines if Waldburger is ready for prime time.
Waldburger's defense is still suspect (33 percent takedown defense, 37 percent of strikes avoided), so figure on Ebersole to draw on his experience and throw some different looks at him to get the victory, probably by second-round TKO.
Ross Pearson vs. Cub Swanson: Pearson made a successful featherweight debut at UFC 141 against Junior Assuncao, and now gets Swanson, a similarly aged fighter who is 1-1 in the UFC after coming over from the WEC when that promotion was absorbed at the end of 2010. Swanson's losses have come against elite competition, for the most part, with fighters like Jens Pulver, Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes among those to defeat the Greg Jackson-trained fighter.
Pearson will have a hard time joining that group. "The Real Deal" is tough and durable, but grappling has never been his strong suit, which makes him prime pickings for the Jackson camp's bread and butter. Look for Swanson to control on the ground en route to victory.
