It may seem as if the entire hockey world is still awaiting word on the outcome of the conversation between Phoenix Coyotes captain Shane Doan and hopeful team buyer Greg Jamison, but in reality, the majority of the waiting is being done by the teams that have the best chance to sign the 16-year NHL veteran.
So far, what we know is that Doan has met with the New York Rangers and the Philadelphia Flyers, that he plans to meet with the Pittsburgh Penguins and that he may be meeting with the Montreal Canadiens as well. The Nashville Predators have expressed interest, but then, the list of teams who are interested in Doan is long enough that a list of who isn't interested in him would make more sense.
So, who's likely to be in and who's likely to be out?
Doan isn't going to leave Phoenix over money. Not only could the Coyotes afford to pay him as much as he'll receive if he leaves, it would likely be an important step towards reaching the salary cap floor. If Doan leaves, it will be to contend for a Stanley Cup. In other words: Sorry, Montreal. Habs goaltender Carey Price may be Doan's cousin, but given the shambles the Coyotes were left in by former general manager Pierre Gauthier, that's not going to mean much.
On the other hand, Doan is going to command a certain value on the open market, and in all likelihood, the team that lands him will be paying his full freight. Given that Alexander Semin got a one-year, $7 million contract on Thursday to play for the Carolina Hurricanes next season, several pundits have pegged Doan - who scored 22 goals and handed out 28 assists last season for the Desert Dogs - at $6 million a year for a four-year contract.
That kind of deal would, at present, rule out teams like the Flyers and the Vancouver Canucks. Based on the current salary cap of $70.2 million, the Flyers have less than $4 million in cap space for next season, while the Canucks have less than $2.5 million (although it's expected that the trade of goaltender Roberto Luongo and his $5.3 million salary cap hit would change things).
At present, the Rangers and Penguins would appear to be the frontrunners, based on the cap space and contention criteria. The Rangers added Rick Nash via trade on Monday to a team that already includes a Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender in Henrik Lundqvist, an emerging young defensive corps led by Marc Staal, Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh, and world-class talent up front in the form of Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik. They also still have nearly $11.7 million in cap space, with one key free agent to sign in defenseman Michael Del Zotto. Del Zotto is due for a raise from his entry-level deal after career bests of 10 goals, 31 assists and a plus-20 rating, but certainly not more than Staal's $3.975 million per year. That would leave plenty of room for Doan.
The Penguins missed out with their bid to sign Zach Parise, but the upside is that they're left with nearly $10 million in cap space and 22 NHL players under contract. They have more than enough room to add Doan, and with the core of Pittsburgh's 2009 Stanley Cup team still largely in place - with the exception of the recently traded Jordan Staal - Doan would certainly have a chance to contend if he signed to play alongside the likes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Nashville is a bit of a wild card in this scenario, as the Predators have lots of cap space - nearly $16.5 million - and while they'll be in the market for a defenseman or two, paying Doan wouldn't be a problem (they still have yet to reach the salary cap floor, in fact). They've also kept a reasonably strong team together despite the loss of Ryan Suter - matching Philly's offer sheet to Shea Weber and signing an extension with Pekka Rinne - and should still contend in a Central Division that's weaker with the retirement of Red Wings defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom and the Blue Jackets' trade of Nash. It's not the golden opportunity that the Rangers or Penguins offer, but it is a contending team with the ability to pay Doan market Value.
There's no doubt that Doan has options, and good ones, at that. The question for now, though, is whether or not he'll explore them.
