The UFC returns to network television on Saturday night with its fourth fight card on Fox, and stakes are high for the evening, as UFC president Dana White has declared that the most impressive winner from the evening's event and co-main event will be declared the No. 1 contender to the UFC Light Heavyweight Championship, currently held by Jon "Bones" Jones ahead of his UFC 151 defense against Dan Henderson.
Main Event, Light Heavyweights: Mauricio "Shogun" Rua vs. Brandon Vera
This matchup drew no small amount of heat for the UFC after it was announced as a main event, particularly after Rua turned down a fight with the highly regarded Glover Teixeira. In a matchup of Muay Thai-based strikers, Rua has the better track record by far, although in fairness, Vera's worst loss since he dropped down from heavyweight was against Keith Jardine (and the Keith Jardine of 2008, at that). That having been said, Shogun is a far better fighter than anyone that Vera has beaten at 205 pounds, and he should take this one in decisive fashion, most likely a second-round knockout.
Co-Main Event, Light Heavyweights: Lyoto Machida vs. Ryan Bader
This one reads like a striker vs. wrestler special, although Bader would argue that he's still maturing in the sport and is progressing past the point where he's "just a wrestler." Bader certainly has knockout power in his hands, and while Machida is known for being elusive and hard to figure out, he has just one win in his last four fights, and that over the aging Randy Couture. This is a fight that will tell us if Machida is the real deal as a top-flight light heavyweight, and he knows it. He'll mix up his angles as always, but he'll probably make a mistake or two that he'll wind up paying for. Bader by third-round TKO.
Lightweights: Joe Lauzon vs. Jamie Varner
This is the kind of fight the UFC puts together to sell the sport to the casual fan who turns on Fox to see just what this MMA stuff is all about. In his last nine fights, Lauzon has earned four "Submission of the Night" bonuses and three "Fight of the Night" bonuses, while former WEC champion Varner has a similar reputation for exciting fights. It takes a certain class of fighter to beat Lauzon, and Varner may or may not be in that class. For now, we're going to say that he's not, and pick Lauzon to add to his list of submission honors in the second round.
Welterweights: Mike Swick vs. DaMarques Johnson
Here's the telling statistic about Johnson: Of the four fights he's won in the Octagon, none of his former opponents is still on the UFC roster. The guys that DaMarques beats are the guys who don't belong in the sport's top promotion. Swick has been away from the Octagon for nearly three years due to injury and illness, but that shouldn't mean he doesn't belong. We'll say Swick by decision.
