The UFC found its next top contender at light heavyweight on Saturday night - Lyoto Machida earned the distinction with a knockout win over Ryan Bader, and will challenge the winner of the UFC 151 bout between champion Jon Joes and challenger Dan Henderson - but the situation in the middleweight division is a little bit murkier.
At the moment, the most likely challengers for Anderson Silva include undefeated prospect Chris Weidman, surprising success story Tim Boetsch and resurgent star Alan "The Talent" Belcher, none of whom, apparently, excites the UFC Middleweight Champion. All three have been successful in recent months, but while Weidman is looking every bit like a future No. 1 contender - having most recently thrashed Mark Munoz in July - the consensus in the MMA world seems to be that the Matt Serra protégé needs one more big fight on his résumé before he can be considered worthy of a title shot. As for Belcher, he's been booked into a battle with Vitor Belfort at UFC 153 in Brazil this fall, while Boetsch doesn't quite have the stature to command interest in a bout with "The Spider." In order to get the right fight for Silva, the UFC needs an opponent who can both threaten "The Spider" AND command interest against him on a fight poster.
Enter Jake Shields. The former Strikeforce middleweight champion is set to make his return to the 185-pound division on Saturday night when he takes on Ed "Short Fuse" Herman, and with a win, he just might be the right opponent for the UFC to match up against Silva.
On its face, the thought seems preposterous, as Shields is coming off of a less-than-inspiring 2-2 stint at welterweight, which saw him lose a unanimous decision to Georges St-Pierre for the UFC Welterweight Championship at UFC 129 last year. What reason is there to believe that Shields can be any better at middleweight? Moreover, why should a win over Ed Herman - a capable veteran, but hardly a leading light of the middleweight division - catapult him to a title shot against Anderson Silva, the fighter believed to be the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artist in the world?
For starters, there's the fact that he was the Strikeforce middleweight champion, and that he successfully defended that belt against Dan Henderson. Henderson gave Silva more problems than any other challenger he's faced in the UFC short of Chael Sonnen, and the fact that Shields was able to be so dominant against "Hendo" is evidence that he should be taken seriously as a potential challenger.
Then, there's the wrestling. While Silva was much more successful against Chael Sonnen at UFC 148 than he was at UFC 117, the fact remains that an elite wrestler like Sonnen or Henderson is the most successful fighter in a matchup with Silva. Shields doesn't have the NCAA pedigree of Sonnen or the Olympic credentials of Henderson, but his skills in the MMA adaptation of wrestling are good enough that he was able to dominate against Henderson. It's fairly likely that his wrestling skills would pose a significant challenge to Silva.
Finally, there's Shields' jiu-jitsu game, honed under Cesar Gracie. Shields' submission grappling game is formidable enough that Georges St-Pierre - an expert grappler himself - was reluctant to go to the mat with Shields last April. Not only could Shields conceivably put Silva on the mat as Sonnen and Henderson have done in the past, but he has the grappling skills to possibly submit "The Spider," or at least to control him without falling victim to a desperate triangle choke.
In a perfect world, Silva would have a challenger who can excite fans as much as Sonnen did, or at least create the intrigue of a Vitor Belfort or Yushin Okami. The current crop of challengers doesn't quite generate that interest. Shields might not be the most deserving candidate based on his UFC record, but if he can get past Herman, he may be the best option.
