NHL Free Agents 2012: Is Shane Doan Contract Offer Too Much?

Aug 08, 2012 02:35 PM EDT

It will take more than money to lure Shane Doan out of Phoenix. That much has been clear from the beginning.

The fact that the face of the Phoenix Coyotes franchise has given prospective buyer Greg Jamison every chance imaginable to wrap up his group's purchase of the team before signing with one of his many suitors is extremely telling.

However, while money may not have the final say when it comes to Doan, the fact remains that "money talks," and one particular offer that the Coyotes captain has received has quite a lot to say.

According to Doan's agent, Terry Bross, one unidentified NHL team has offered Doan a contract worth $30 million over four years. It's uncertain whether the offer came from a team that's on Doan's "short list" of preferred destinations, but Bross has clarified that the team is not the New York Rangers. That would leave the Vancouver Canucks, the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Nashville Predators as "short-listed" teams, but the most intriguing detail is that $7.5 million per year that Doan would earn.

If Doan were to sign the "mystery deal," he'd carry the 10th biggest salary cap hit in the NHL, tied with Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik and Steven Stamkos. The nine players who earn more than $7.5 million per year are Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Eric Staal, Shea Weber, Rick Nash, Vincent Lecavalier, Zach Parise and Ryan Suter.

Leaving out the defensemen (for comparability) and Crosby (due to his injuries), the players at or above Doan's proposed cap hit averaged more than 35.5 goals and 36.3 assists in 2011-12. Doan's 22 goals and 28 assists need to be respected, but his 50 points leave him at the low end of that list by far, in the company of two players (Lecavalier and Heatley) who had disappointing seasons.

Of course, Doan's value to whichever team winds up signing him goes far beyond goals and assists. The winner of the Mark Messier Leadership Award this past season, Doan could be a valuable addition to the locker for any Stanley Cup contender, and he brings a certain grit to his game that is valuable, particularly in the playoffs. However intangibles don't make up the difference between Doan's production and that of other players at his proposed pay grade.

There is another factor to consider, though. For teams like the Rangers, Canucks and Penguins, Doan is seen as the potential missing piece of the Stanley Cup puzzle. If things work out that way, then it would be hard to say that he wasn't worth it. On the other hand, if Doan doesn't win a Stanley Cup with his new team (presuming he has one), than he could be looked at in four years as a very expensive mistake.

Adrian Dater, a hockey columnist for the Denver Post and Sports Illustrated, wrote Wednesday on his Twitter account (@adater), "Any team that gives Shane Doan four years and $28 million at age 36 is flat out stupid." For a Stanley Cup contender looking for that one last player, the view could certainly be a bit different. In the end, we might not know how this story ends for another four years.

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