College Football Bowl Predictions: Baylor Bears Outlast UCLA Bruins In Explosive Holiday Bowl Matchup

Dec 27, 2012 04:45 PM EST

The UCLA Bruins were one of the surprise teams in college football this season, making it to the Pac-12 championship game in its first season under new head coach Jim Mora.

Although the team lost to Stanford to miss out on the Rose Bowl for the second straight season, the Bruins still have a lot to play for and a lot to prove as they take on a high-powered Baylor team in the Holiday Bowl at San Diego on Thursday night.

"We need to mourn a little bit," Mora said to the Associated Press about the loss to Stanford. "We need to get over this one. We poured it out there and we came up short. We'll eventually move on but this will sting for a while. You don't get that close and lose and not have it hurt. Obviously, we have a lot of work to do to become the team we want to be."

The Bruins lost to Stanford 27-24 in the conference title game after Bruins freshman Ka'imi Fairbairn missed a 52-yard field-goal attempt in the closing minute. The Bruins played Stanford the previous week in the regular-season finale, but lost 35-17 to set up the championship matchup.

UCLA is 9-4 on the year and is looking for its first 10-win season since 2005. The team will rely heavily on running back Johnathan Franklin, who was a Doak Walker Award finalist after rushing for 1,700 yards and 13 touchdowns. He had 194 yards and two touchdowns in the title game against Stanford and has scored five touchdowns over the past three games.

The Bruins started the year with three straight wins before losing two of three against Oregon State and California. UCLA won its next five games, including a 38-28 victory over USC, before dropping two straight to Stanford to end the year. The Bruins offense has a solid matchup against a Baylor team that is giving up nearly 40 points per game.

UCLA is averaging nearly 500 yards and are scoring over 35 points per game, ranked 29th in the nation. Redshirt freshman Brett Hundley has thrown for 3,411 yards and 26 touchdowns, which is the second most in school history. He is completing nearly 70 percent if his passes and finished second on the team behind Franklin with 365 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

The offense will try to take advantage of a vulnerable Baylor unit that is allowing 513.9 yards per game, 119th in the nation. The Bruins defense is giving up 25 points per game and will have to deal with a Baylor team that has shown no signs of slowing down since losing last year's Heisman winner Robert Griffin III. The Bears are ranked first in the nation in total yards with 578 per game and are averaging 44 points, ranked fifth in FBS.

The Bears will rely heavily on senior quarterback Nick Florence, who is ranked first in the nation in total offense with 387.7 yards per game. He has stepped in nicely for Griffin, who was drafted second-overall by the Washington Redskins in last year's NFL Draft.

Florence has thrown for six touchdowns and just two interceptions in the past three games and had 396 yards passing in a 52-45 overtime win over Texas Tech. Baylor has won three straight games since losing 42-34 to then-No. 12 ranked Oklahoma and have scored at least 41 points in four of the past five games.

The UCLA defense will target Baylor wideout Terrance Williams, who was a Biletnikoff Award finalist after making 95 receptions for a school-record 1,764 receiving yards. He scored 12 touchdowns in his senior season and made seven receptions for 175 yards in the win over Texas Tech two weeks ago.

The Bears have been excellent through the air, but also rank 18th in rushing yards with 225 per game. Lache Seastrunk is leading the team with 874 rushing yards and has combined with junior Glasco Martin for 18 touchdowns this season. Seastrunk had 178 yards and one touchdown in the final win over Oklahoma State and has scored five touchdowns in the last three games.

The Bruins have a number of stars on defense, including junior linebacker Anthony Barr, who was first in the nation with 13 1/2 sacks, and sophomore linebacker Eric Kendricks, was fifth in the FBS with 137 tackles.

Last season UCLA had a 6-8 record in the final year under head coach Rick Neuheisel and went just 5-4 in the Pac-12 conference. The team went to the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl and defeated Illinois 20-14 to become the first bowl-eligible team to ever lose eight games.

Baylor started the season with three high-scoring wins to open 3-0, but then lost four straight, including a 70-63 loss to then-No. 9 West Virginia. The Bears rebounded with a 41-14 win over Kansas, but lost the following week to Oklahoma before finishing the season with a three game winning streak. Baylor only went 4-5 this season in the Big 12, but won their final three conference games to become bowl eligible.

The Bruins have improved greatly under Mora, but the defense has a tough matchup with a Baylor team that has scored over 40 points seven times this season. UCLA gives up 255.4 passing yards per game and has allowed a 133.98 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks.

PREDICTION: Baylor 48, UCLA 42. Both of these offenses can explode at any moment, but the Bears are riding a three game winning streak, while UCLA is coming off of two tough defeats at the hands of Stanford. The score could easily be reversed, but Florence and Williams have been on fire lately and will do well against a UCLA defense that gives up a nice amount of yards. The Bruins will be able to keep up with Franklin, who is the school's all-time leading rusher, but it won't be enough to overtake the Bears.

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