The BCS organizers might as well call this the "alternate reality" national championship game.
Heading into the second-to-last week of the college football season, the national title matchup was Oregon and Kansas State. Both teams were undefeated at 10-0 and were on a collision course for Miami in January, but then something happened: they lost.
Both teams were upset in the same weekend, leaving the programs to wonder if they would even factor into the BCS at the end of the year. While Notre Dame and Alabama will play for the actual BCS championship, fans will get a look at what they could have possibly seen as the Oregon Ducks and Kansas State Wildcats face off in the BCS Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night.
"If you lose a game, you leave it up to chance," Ducks coach Chip Kelly said to the Associated Press. "The only thing you can do is not lose a game. Two years ago we did not lose a game, we got an opportunity to play in the (BCS title) game. This year we did and we have nobody to blame but ourselves."
Oregon was looking unstoppable before losing to Stanford on Nov. 17 in overtime. The team had won 10 games in a row while scoring at least 42 points in each contest, but were stifled by a skilled and talented Stanford defense that went on to win the Rose Bowl over Wisconsin on New Year's Day.
The Ducks were by far the most explosive offensive team in the nation, averaging over 550 total yards per game while scoring 50 per game, ranked second in the nation. The team was ranked 67th in passing yards, but were the second ranked rushing team with over 320 yards per game. The defense wasn't too bad points-wise for the Ducks, allowing just 22 per game, but the team has had issues with giving up large chunks of yards.
The benefit for Oregon is that they can score quicker and easier than anyone in the nation, meaning they can survive when other teams rack up the yards, much like USC did earlier this year in a loss against the Ducks. Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein was a Heisman finalist and will look to take advantage of the weak linebackers of Oregon.
The Kansas State defense was one of the best in the nation, ranking 24th in points against, but they have never played a team with an offense like Oregon. The Wildcats shut down West Virginia and Geno Smith earlier in the season, but even the Mountaineers can't hold a candle to the Ducks.
Quarterback Marcus Mariota has been excellent as the starter in his first season with the Ducks. The freshman has thrown for 2,511 yards and 30 touchdowns with just six interceptions while completing nearly 70 percent of his passes. He also ranks second on the team in rushing with 690 yards and four touchdowns.
Mariota threw for 14 touchdowns and just one interception over the last five weeks of the season and had six passing scores against California in a 58-17 win. He became the Pac-12's first freshman quarterback to make the all-conference first team since USC's Todd Marinovich in 1989 and has proven to be capable at getting the ball down the field.
Running back Kenjon Barner has been just as good and is the most explosive player in the Pac-12. The senior, who was ninth in the Heisman voting, has rushed for 1,624 yards and 21 touchdowns this season while averaging over 6.0 yards per carry. Barner had an amazing game against USC earlier in the year, scoring five touchdowns while rushing for a season-high 321 yards in the 62-51 win.
"He did exactly what we thought he would do. He's had some outstanding performances this year," Kelly said. "... For as young a team as we have offensively, real leader for us on the offensive side of the ball."
The one game of the year that Oregon couldn't score was the Nov. 17 matchup against Stanford. The Wildcats should look to this game as the example they should copy for the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday night. Oregon only gained 400 total yards, while Barner was held to just 66 rushing yards in the game.
Barner will have a tough test against a Wildcats defense that is allowing just 99 yards per game this season. Oregon will try to gash Kansas State like Baylor did in their lone loss when the Bears gained 342 yards on the ground. The defense will be led by safety Ty Zimmerman, who was second in the Big 12 with five interceptions, and senior linebacker Arthur Brown, who won Big 12 defensive player of the year after recording 91 tackles to lead the team.
The Wildcats will rely heavily on quarterback Collin Klein on offense and will try to keep Oregon off the field for as long as possible. Klein was one of the most impressive players in college football this season and likely would have won the Heisman if Kansas State remained undefeated.
"The goal all along was to lead this team to a conference championship and a BCS bowl game, and with the unity we showed throughout the season, we were able to accomplish that," Klein said. "Oregon is certainly going to be a tough matchup."
The senor has thrown for 2,490 yards and 15 touchdowns with just seven interceptions this season while competing over 66 percent of his passes. Klein was second on the team in rushing and finished just two yards behind leader John Hubert with 890 yards and 22 touchdowns.
"He's awfully good at what he does," Big 12 coach of the year Bill Snyder said, "and he's awfully good as a leader and he's awfully good as a field manager, and he's awfully good in all the physical aspects of the game -- and he's a tremendous person."
Klein will have to do a good job of protecting the ball for the Wildcats to win. During the first stretch of the season, he had just two interceptions in nine games, but since, he has thrown five over the last three games. Oregon is known for their ball-hawking ability and leads the nation with 39 turnovers.
The Wildcats offense is ranked eighth in the nation with over 40 points per game, but the team isn't nearly as consistent as Oregon, scoring less than 30 four different times. The team struggled down the stretch on offense, but woke up in the regular season finale to drop 42 points on Texas.
Running back John Hubert is first on the team with 892 rushing yards, but he has failed to crack the 100-yard barrier in seven straight games. He scored three times against Texas in the finale, but rushed for only 66 yards.
The Wildcats were the No. 1 team in the BCS and had a chance to play in the national championship before losing to Baylor on Nov. 17. Klein threw for 286 yards and scored three touchdowns, but also had three interceptions in the 52-24 defeat. Klein has scored at least once in every game this season and has been as much of a threat with his arm as with his legs. He rushed for 100-plus yards three times this year, including in the finale when he had 103 yards and two touchdowns.
Oregon is making its fourth consecutive BCS bowl appearance after winning the Rose Bowl last season, while Kansas State is coming off of a 29-16 loss to Arkansas in the 2012 Cotton Bowl.
Prediction: Oregon 45, Kansas State 31. The Ducks are simply just too powerful on offense for the Wildcats. Kenjon Barner should have a good game against a team that has been vulnerable to the run over the past few weeks, while the defense will make enough p[lays to keep Kansas State at bay. Klein could have the game of a lifetime, but he is basically the number one option for the Wildcats, while Oregon has numerous different weapons. Ducks linebacker Dion Jordan will provide speed and strength in the middle and will be one player who can keep up with Klein if he runs. The game is being played in a dome with perfect weather, tipping the advantage to the speedy Ducks. Bet the over in this one. This could also be the final game for Chip Kelly as head coach of Oregon after gaining the attention of many NFL teams.
