While teams like the Philadelphia Flyers, Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks have been mentioned prominently in the Rick Nash trade discussion, there's been a slight sense throughout the proceedings that the Columbus Blue Jackets star will wind up with the New York Rangers. The Broadway Blueshirts were in the hunt for Nash back in February before the NHL's trade deadline, and while they wound up ultimately passing in the face of Columbus general manager Scott Howson's trade demands, the Rangers have been one of the main players in the Nash sweepstakes again this summer.
The question, however, is whether a deal for Nash really makes sense for the Blueshirts, given what Howson wants in return.
Unlike the Carolina Hurricanes (who bowed out when it was clear that Jeff Skinner was essential to any deal) and the San Jose Sharks (who have no interest in parting with Logan Couture), the Rangers don't have a young player available for trade who's comparable to Nash, one of five NHL players with 30 goals in each of the last five seasons. The names that have come up most often on the list of players the Blue Jackets might want in return for Nash (30 goals and 29 assists in 2011-12) are playmaking center Derek Stepan (17 goals and 24 assists), shutdown defenseman Ryan McDonagh (7 goals and 25 assists) and playoff sensation Chris Kreider, who set an NHL record by scoring five goals in the Stanley Cup playoffs before making his regular-season debut.
On the Rangers' end, Brandon Dubinsky has been the name that comes up most often. He was asked by the media before the trade deadline about the possibility of being traded away as part of a package for Nash, and shrugged it off with a comment that "Trades are part of the game." He had the best season of his NHL career in 2010-11, scoring 24 goals and handing out 30 assists, but regressed in 2011-12, finishing with career lows of 10 goals and 34 points (although he was a career-best plus-16).
The question that Rangers general manager Glen Sather is wrestling with - if he is indeed wrestling with it - is how much is too much for Nash, and how much really isn't enough. While Dubinsky's down year in 2011-12 makes it easier for the Rangers to part with him, it also hurts his value to the Blue Jackets. If Dubinsky is one of the main pieces in the Nash deal, there will need to be another big one.
In that light, Kreider probably makes the most sense from the Blue Jackets' perspective. He scored 23 goals for Boston College in 44 games this season, which would multiply out to 42 goals in 82 games. Of course, there's a big difference between college hockey and the NHL, so no one is expecting Kreider to score 40 goals for anyone this year. On the other hand, Kreider's five goals in 18 games during the playoffs would project out to 23 goals in an 82-game regular season, so between those two figures, it's fair to say the Kreider is a candidate to become the kind of 30-goal scorer that Nash is now at some point in the not-too-distant future. In a nice little bonus, the Blue Jackets already have Kreider's former BC teammate Cam Atkinson, who was the Most Outstanding Player when BC won the NCAA Championship in 2010 and put up 14 points in 27 NHL games last season.
So, here's the question: if Kreider is a necessary part of the package for Nash, does it make sense for the Rangers?
The argument against trading away Kreider is essentially above. The Rangers' first-round pick in 2009 is looking like a future 30-goal-plus scorer at the NHL level, and not worth trading away for a player who's seven years older an carries a much higher price tag (although the Rangers have lots of room under the salary cap).
On the other hand, there's the question of how big the Rangers' window is to win a Stanley Cup. Four key players are set to become unrestricted free agents after the 2013-14 season: top goal-scorer Marian Gaborik, All-Star defenseman Dan Girardi, team captain Ryan Callahan and, most importantly, Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender and perennial Rangers MVP Henrik Lundqvist. While it's hardly inconceivable that the Rangers could keep that nucleus together longer, it's also possible that the Rangers' window for winning with this group of players lasts just two years.
Giving up Kreider and Dubinsky (plus draft picks or other prospects) could be worth it if the Rangers win the Stanley Cup in 2013 or 2014. Even if Kreider turns into a star in Columbus or elsewhere, the Rangers could point to their banner from one of those years and say that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. If it didn't work out, however, the Rangers would have mortgaged the future for a present that didn't pan out. On the other hand, if the Rangers stand pat and find themselves rebuilding in two years without having won a Cup, Sather and Rangers fans may find themselves wondering what would have happened if he'd pulled the trigger.
On the whole, Sather tends to do much better shipping big contracts out of town (Scott Gomez, for example) than he does bringing them in. This is a decision that could go either way, but the smart money says that the Rangers put more effort into other options (Bobby Ryan, for example) before they agree to part with the kind of package that Columbus wants.